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If Coupeville moves down from 1A to 2B, only one of these athletes, freshman Xavier Murdy (right), could still be playing when it happens. (Photo by JohnsPhotos.net)

Change may be coming, but we’ll have to wait a bit for its full impact to hit.

When the Washington Interscholastic Activities Association meets Jan. 28 for its winter coalition, the group’s 53-member Representative Assembly will vote on two amendments which could radically alter how schools are classified for sports competition.

Rule 4.2.0 will “establish hard line numbers for high school classifications” while rule 4.3.0 “adjusts enrollment figures based upon percentage of free and reduced lunches.”

A 60% “yes” vote is needed to pass, and all indications are both amendments will easily clear that threshold.

If that happens, it could be huge for Coupeville High School. As one of the smallest 1A schools in the state, CHS could likely move down to 2B, where it resided for many decades.

But, and this is important, the WIAA confirmed this week that any changes to the classification system will not take effect until the 2020-2021 school year.

What does that mean for CHS athletes?

If you’re a current senior or junior, you will finish your prep athletic career in the 1A North Sound Conference. No one and done, it’s our home for at least two school years, this current one and the next.

After that, everything is in play.

The next classification count happens this year, either way, with each school tallying up students currently in grades 9-11.

If the second amendment passes, administrators will look at the state average for free and reduced lunches, and see how their school stacks up.

In an effort to better balance the field between rich (often private) schools and ones who struggle financially, schools above the state average would get to reduce their student body count by the same percentage.

That could allow some schools to drop down a classification, though they can’t jump more than one level.

After that, if the first amendment passes, the WIAA will no longer try to balance the number of schools in each classification, as it has for the past decade-plus.

That’s huge for Coupeville, which had 2B numbers during the last count in 2016, but was pushed back up to 1A in the effort to keep balance between the divisions.

CHS, after losing 10% of its student body in two years, appealed in 2018 to drop down, but was denied.

If hard line numbers are used, this is how the classification system will look in 2020:

4A — 1300+ students
3A — 900-1299
2A — 450-899
1A — 225-449
2B — 105-224
1B — 1-104

Once a school does its count, and uses the adjustment for free/reduced lunches (if above the state average), they will know where they sit, and no longer have to wait to see if they are bumped for “parity.”

Those classifications remain in effect for four years, and schools can appeal their status during the second year.

Schools can still opt to play up a classification, such as Archbishop Murphy currently does, competing as a 2A school while having a 1A-level student body count, but can’t opt down.

If CHS lands between 105-224 students, which appears possible, it would likely return to the Northwest B League in 2020, rejoining Concrete, La Conner and other foes it faced on a regular basis up through the ’80s.

If not, the 1A North Sound Conference, which Coupeville joined in 2018 after four seasons in the 1A Olympic League, will still be there waiting, though its current six-team look could change.

Granite Falls only recently slipped down from 2A to 1A after an appeal, while King’s and Cedar Park Christian, as private schools, won’t be helped by the free/reduced lunch amendment, and could actually be hurt.

There has been discussion about going the opposite way with private schools, automatically adding a certain percentage to the student body count. Whether that will become a reality is one of many things to keep an eye on if the amendments pass.

While going with hard line numbers seems like an ideal choice, the WIAA resisted for some time because of the likelihood some classifications would become substantially bigger than others.

If one classification has, say, 20 more schools than another, than it’s harder for each school at the more-crowded level to earn a berth at a state tournament.

The compromise is, if the amendments pass, state tourney fields will no longer have to be the same size at all levels.

If we’re operating under hard line numbers in 2020, here’s how it breaks down:

84+ schools in a classification = 24-team state tourney
69-83 schools = 20-team state tourney
53-68 schools = (traditional) 16-team state tourney
37-52 schools = 12-team state tourney
20-36 schools = 8-team state tourney
19 or less schools = combine with the division above for state tourney

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Current 8th graders like Maya Toomey-Stout (3) and Scout Smith (2)

   Current 8th graders like Maya Toomey-Stout (3) and Scout Smith (2) now know Coupeville will be a 1A school for their entire high school run. (John Fisken photo)

It’s a done deal. Well, 99% done.

Coupeville High School will remain a 1A school for the next four years, and so will the three other schools who joined the Wolves to form the 1A Olympic League in 2014.

The Washington Interscholastic Activities Association released its 2016-2020 enrollment figures Thursday, with final approval set to come when their executive board meets Jan. 24-25.

After years of doing classification counts every two years, the WIAA is changing that to every four years beginning this year.

Two years ago, Coupeville was the smallest true 1A school in the state, but it no longer holds that distinction.

With 227 students in grades 9-11, it is now the 6th smallest, with Columbia (Burbank) inheriting smallest status with 214.50 students.

Schools can choose to opt up (but not down), and eight schools with 2B numbers decided to do just that, so, technically, CHS has the 52nd biggest student body of the 65 schools which will compete in 1A.

Coupeville’s three league mates all remained in 1A, as well, though Klahowya came close to not making the cut.

The Eagles slid in just under the line, and they will be the 2nd biggest 1A school with 445.07 students.

Port Townsend has 278.25, which is way down from two years ago, and Chimacum sits at 250.38.

As the WIAA dots the I’s and crosses the T’s, there is still one thing to keep an eye on.

Across the state, schools are jumping leagues, either because of moving up or sliding down a level, or for other reasons.

The Everett Herald is reporting the four 2A schools from Coupeville’s former league, the 2A/1A Cascade Conference, are joining up with schools from the Northwest Conference, such as Anacortes, to form a 12-team “super conference” for football only.

That would leave the conference’s four 1A schools — King’s, South Whidbey, Sultan and Cedar Park Christian-Bothell — on their own, at least for the biggest revenue sport.

Whether that could help prod South Whidbey to seek out a chance to rejoin Coupeville is unknown at this time.

If the 1A Olympic League were to expand (Forks has been frequently mentioned in the past, as well), the league could set itself up for more playoff berths in all sports.

Only time will tell, though.

Until then, it’s all just gossip. Juicy, juicy gossip to fill up the day.

To see the final, almost-official WIAA figures, pop over to:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12qwdXCBPepkgxLWG4sbxIJgXo5eDX0FZHM8flfx4pdE/pubhtml?gid=1635670243&single=true

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IT looks like current CMS 8th graders like Jered Brown (with ball) and Ultril Wells

   If current numbers hold, CMS 8th graders like Jered Brown (with ball) and Ulrik Wells will play all four years of high school ball at the 1A level. (John Fisken photo)

The 1A Olympic League seems to be safe.

On Jan. 15 the Washington Interscholastic Activities Association will officially announce its proposal for how to classify the state’s high school athletic teams for the next four years.

Once those numbers are released, there will be 10 days for schools to debate the numbers and make any counter-proposals, before the WIAA rubber stamps everything Jan. 25.

If the preliminary numbers hold up, all four members of the Olympic League will remain in 1A.

The current counts would have 65 teams each in 4A, 3A, 2A and 1A, with 62 teams apiece in 2B and 1B.

Coupeville, which had been the smallest true 1A school (2B and 1B schools with smaller student populations can opt to play above their class), would no longer hold that distinction if the current numbers hold.

Two years ago, there were 225 Wolves when grades 9-11 were counted. This time around, there are 227 and there would now be six true 1A schools below CHS.

The preliminary outlook for 1A has six schools which have opted up (you can opt up but not down) and 59 true 1A schools.

For Coupeville to slide back into 2B, it would appear those six opt-ups would have to stay opted-up, while seven 2B schools would have to suddenly decide to start playing at 1A.

Barring a seismic, unexpected change to the landscape, that means the Wolves will remain a 1A school through 2020.

The WIAA previously went on two-year counts, but 2016 will mark a change, as all classification will now happen on four-year intervals.

Coupeville’s league rivals all will remain 1A, as well.

Chimacum, which had been at 237 the last time, is now at 250, while Port Townsend has slid from 327 to 278.

Klahowya remains one of the largest 1A schools, but has dropped from 455 to 445 in two years.

While the Wolves have the smallest student body in the Olympic League, they have more than held their own in the year-and-a-half the league has been in place.

In the 10 sports in which Coupeville competes, the Wolves have 54 league wins, second only to Klahowya’s 71 — and that margin could be chopped down quite a bit as basketball plays out.

Both CHS squads are in first place in the hoops standings, with the Wolf girls the defending league champs. The teams have 16 league games remaining between them.

Port Townsend has 29 league wins across those 10 sports in that time, while Chimacum has 28.

While it would appear Coupeville’s 1A status and league affiliation are all but guaranteed, there is still a bit of intrigue out there.

Once Jan. 25 comes to pass, there may be other schools left adrift by dropping or moving up to 1A.

Some of those schools could seek a new league.

If so, the Olympic League could strengthen itself, and possibly add postseason berths, by expanding, picking up new members who would start play in the 2016-2017 school year.

That, though, is intrigue for another day.

To see preliminary enrollment figures for the 2016-2020 classification period, pop over to:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12qwdXCBPepkgxLWG4sbxIJgXo5eDX0FZHM8flfx4pdE/pubhtml#

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