“How do you like them apples, experts?” (John Fisken photo)
Perception is a funny thing.
After the Coupeville High School girls’ basketball squad went two and out at the district playoffs, losing to Seattle Christian and Cascade Christian, there were some who felt the Wolves 15-4 record entering the postseason was suspect.
That CHS was “hurt by playing in the worst 1A league in the state.”
Which, as the numbers will show, isn’t even remotely close, but hold that thought for a second.
On the other side of our argument is Seattle Academy, which, at 17-3, is headed to state.
So, perception, at least from the outside, is that the Cardinals must be a great team.
Except…
Coupeville and Seattle Academy met head-to-head on a neutral court during the Friday Harbor Tip-Off Classic, and the Wolves won in a romp, 44-31.
Yet, all season long, the ScoreCzar computer ranked the Cardinals ahead of the Wolves.
Mention Coupeville’s better statistical numbers and harder schedule, both in terms of opponents winning percentage and the fact CHS played 14 of 21 away from home, and the computer had only one thing to fall back on — Seattle Academy’s point differential.
And this is where perception starts to be absolutely wrong.
And why I firmly believe if we flipped Coupeville to Seattle Academy’s Emerald City League and SA to the Olympic League, we would see an exact reversal of fortune.
Seattle Academy’s 17-3 record looks great, until we realize the Cardinals are only 2-3 against out-of-league competition.
Of the 10 leagues to play 1A ball in the state, the nine-team, private-school ECL had the worst winning percentage against non-league foes by a mile.
Counting its four playoff losses (so far), we’re talking 8-25.
A .242 winning percentage when every other 1A league hit .400 or better.
Outside its safety zone, Seattle Academy lost by double digits to Coupeville, Bellevue Christian and Lynden Christian.
Inside, against marginal teams, it dominated, winning many of its 15 league games by 30+ points.
Against mediocre teams that couldn’t beat anyone other than other mediocre teams in their own league.
Which, to a computer, apparently looks great.
And, since the ECL champ automatically advances to state, welcome to the big dance, Cardinals. Now try not to get hurt.
Seriously, as league champs, Seattle Academy skipped right to the championship game of bi-districts (there are no playoffs in District 2), so, win or lose, they were state-bound.
Their foe in that game, Lynden Christian, had to get through perennial powers Meridian and King’s to escape District 1, then promptly slaughtered the Cardinals 62-37.
The other three ECL teams to make the playoffs also skipped districts, qualified for a loser-out game at bi-districts and were squished one-two-three.
Mount Baker took out both #2 University Prep (61-28) and #4 Overlake (47-25), while Meridian mashed #3 Annie Wright (61-35).
Seattle Academy’s first-round foe at state? Meridian. It’s not going to be pretty.
And now we jump back to Coupeville, which finished off a third consecutive 9-0 season to remain the big dog in the Olympic League.
Seven of those league wins were of the double-digit variety, ranging from 10-18 points, while the other two were eight and nine-point wins.
For the season, they knocked off their closest rivals by an average of 11.6 points a night, down from 22.0 in 2014-2015 and 18.1 in 2015-2016.
The computers were wowed by Seattle Academy’s point differential and underwhelmed by Coupeville’s, while missing the pertinent point.
The Wolves didn’t romp to 30-point wins in league play like the Cardinals because their league was better. Their foes were tougher. They had a harder fight night in and night out.
It’s right there in the numbers.
Three of the four OL teams (Coupeville, Port Townsend and Chimacum) had winning non-conference records, and all four league teams (including cellar dweller Klahowya) beat 2A teams this season.
Overall, the league was #6 of 10 in terms of record against non-league opponents, way ahead of #10 ECL.
Chimacum, which is barely bigger than Coupeville in student body size, won four times against 2A schools, in fact.
Frankly, a nine-point win against the Cowboys, a solid squad that won a district playoff game, means far more than Seattle Academy rolling by 40 against Eastside Prep, which finished 0-19.
Go outside the league and Coupeville won six times, including beating two state-bound teams (Seattle Academy and Friday Harbor) while playing twice in less than 24 hours on the road.
The Cardinals have no wins against state-bound teams.
If you flip Coupeville into the ECL, I’m willing to bet they also go 15-0 and win most of their games in a romp.
Why not? The Wolves already played the best that league had to offer this year and toasted them.
So why would they fear The Bush School or Bear Creek?
Put Seattle Academy in the OL and does it go 9-0 against Kaitlyn Meek and the Nisbet sisters? I’m not quite as convinced.
I could be wrong, but, if they stayed undefeated (in a tougher league), then congratulations, Cardinals. But I’ll believe it when I see it.
Now, all of this changes nothing.
Seattle Academy, despite playing in one postseason game (and taking a 25-point loss), is state-bound.
And I’m not trying to rag on the Cardinals. Seriously.
As a wise hoops coach once said, “we are in the league we are in,” and that’s very true.
Seattle Academy did everything it was supposed to do to earn a state berth. The Cardinals shouldn’t be faulted, in the slightest.
Meanwhile, Coupeville, despite being a better team where it mattered — on the floor, head-to-head — had a poor playoff run in a district where you have to actually win to advance, and its players have turned in their uniforms.
If it comes across as sour grapes to bemoan the tougher path the Wolves faced, no one should really give that much credence.
CHS knew what it faced, and while it completed the run during league, it most assuredly did not in the playoffs.
Based on those district losses, the Wolves can not argue in the slightest they deserve to be state-bound.
But it all goes back to perception, which is what’s bothering me right now.
People on the outside make snap judgements, without looking closer at what the numbers truly say or taking all the variables into consideration, and a lot of times they’re just flat wrong.
And yes, it’s very possible my own fairly limited knowledge of Seattle Academy basketball could mean I’m missing some pertinent info, as well.
Maybe while the Wolves were on the road (almost) every night, the Cardinals had to play in a home gym where the thermometer was permanently stuck at 17 degrees, or had to wear ’80s-style short shorts.
It’s certainly possible, if not probable.
In the end, we are where we are and all my nattering changes not a thing. Except maybe your perception.
